* Scotland's independence vote crucial to future of North
* Sinn Fein hails vote as beginning of end of UK
* Catholics in two minds about whether time is right
* Unionists hope 'no' in Scotland will help their cause
BELFAST, Dec 4 (Reuters) - London's decision to grant
Scotland a referendum on independence after 300 years has raised
an awkward question for Northern Ireland's Catholics.
After centuries fighting for its downfall, do they really
want the United Kingdom to collapse?
Irish nationalist leaders have seized on Scotland's 2014
vote as the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom and are
calling for their own referendum on ending hundreds of years of
rule from London.
But many Irish Catholics, the mainstay of the Republican
cause for a united Ireland, appear reluctant to seize what their
leaders say is a historic opportunity, fearful of upsetting a
fragile peace and nervous of who will pay the bills.
"We are better off staying where we are from a rational and
an emotional point of view," said Sean Kerr, a 61-year-old
supporter of Sinn Fein, the main pro-Irish nationalist party.
"We went through 'The Troubles' and things have settled
down, people are getting on together. Just leave us alone. Just
let the hare sit, as they say up here."
He is not alone. Fifty-two percent of the province's
Catholics think it should remain part of the United Kingdom,
according the last major poll on the issue, released last year.
That number has been seized upon by unionist rivals in
recent weeks as proof that a referendum would fail in Northern
Ireland, with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) saying that
Catholic resistance meant Northern Ireland's place in the union
was more secure that Scotland's.
Resistance to British rule has been at the core of Irish
nationalism since Henry VIII of England declared himself King of
Ireland in the 16th century.
After the Irish state secured independence from Britain in
1921, Northern Irish Catholics remained part of United Kingdom
in a northern state dominated by Protestants, many of whose
ancestors had settled from Scotland.
Catholics' protests that they were being treated as
second-class citizens and the desire to rejoin the south helped
fuel The Troubles, three decades of tit-for-tat bombings and
shootings that killed 3,600 until a peace deal in 1998
introduced a power-sharing government.
While Catholics say most of their civil rights grievances
have since been addressed, resistance to British rule, with the
Irish tricolour its most potent symbol, remains a central part
of their identity.
On the other side, thousands of Protestant "Loyalists" still
demonstrate their attachment to Britain every year by marching,
bowler-hatted, through Belfast and other towns in the province
to celebrate a 300-year-old battlefield victory over Catholics.
A key concern for Irish Catholics, as they look south and
see the economic devastation left in the wake of Ireland's
Celtic Tiger crash, is the economics of splitting from Britain.
While activists in Scotland say direct control of the income
from its offshore oil fields would more than make up for
subsidies from London, almost everyone in Northern Ireland
admits that it benefits financially from London.
The province secures around 10 billion pounds ($16 billion),
or about half of total public sector spending, through an annual
block grant from Britain. Just under one-third of the population
is employed in the public sector, the highest level in the
Sinn Fein says combining public services for Ireland's 4.5
million people and Northern Ireland's 1.8 million would create
cost savings, but its arguments have not convinced many.
To split with London in the current climate would be
"totally insane" said Jim Wade, a Catholic businessman.
"If there was a vote in the morning, I would vote for a
united Ireland. But at the same time I don't think we could
afford it. I know down there, they couldn't afford it," he said
of the Irish government.
Many northern Catholics looked on in envy as the Celtic
Tiger transformed the Republic from one of the poorest countries
in Europe to one of its richest.
But since a property boom began to collapse in 2007 and
Dublin signed up to an EU-IMF bailout three years later,
unemployment has surged to a near-20 year high of just under 15
percent, compared to 8 percent in the north.
Even in staunchly Republican areas of Belfast, the economic
reality of the decision remains a nagging worry.
"I have never come across anybody in these areas who wants
to stay with Britain," said Margaret Shannon, 58, shopping on
the predominantly Catholic Falls Road in Belfast.
"But it depends on the moment that they pick. When people
look to the south and see them cutting funding again, taking bus
passes from pensioners. That's what would unsettle people."
HARD SELL IN SOUTH
In the Republic of Ireland the dream of united Ireland
remains a central tenet of Irish nationalism, the subject of
countless ballads and an article of faith for political parties
across the spectrum.
But economic reality is making unification a hard sell
A poll of Irish voters last week showed one in five said
they expected it to happen within the next 25 years, with
one-third saying it would never happen.
In a sign it would have little appetite for the vast cost of
reunification, the Irish government announced last year that it
could not afford one of the few cross-border initiatives it has
signed up to, a 560 million euro cross-border motorway.
"The northern nationalist community is under no illusions
that the south harbours any desire even in the medium to long
term future to actually bring about a united Ireland," said
Graham Walker, professor of political history at Belfast's
"That has been communicated to them very clearly."
UNION UP FOR DEBATE
Nationalists are selling the Scottish referendum as the
beginning of a one-way street towards the United Kingdom's break
up, saying that even if the Scottish vote is not passed London
will be forced to give it more autonomy.
"What the Scottish referendum has shown is that the union is
up for debate. The union is not set in stone or set there for
generations to come," said John O'Dowd, a senior Sinn Fein
minister in Northern Ireland's parliament.
The problem for Sinn Fein is that Irish nationalists may not
yet be in a position to capitalise on it.
While not everyone in Northern Ireland votes along religious
lines, most observers do not believe nationalists can secure
approval for a united Ireland while Protestants, who
traditionally vote for unionist parties, remain a majority of
A census due later this month is expected to show further
growth in the Catholic minority, although most observers say it
will take another generation at least before Catholic voters are
in a majority.
The 2001 census showed that 40 percent classified themselves
as Catholic and 46 percent were Protestant. However just over
half of the pupils in the 2010-11 academic year were Catholic
compared to 37 percent who were Protestant.
The next census figures will "demonstrate very clearly the
constitutional trajectory that we are set on," O'Dowd said.
Unionists, who say their link to Britain is a key part of
their identity, are hoping that a strong vote against
independence in Scotland could kill momentum for devolution
before the Catholic community secures the majority.
"If they vote to stay in the union by a significant margin
it will actually strengthen the union not weaken it," said
Democratic Unionist party member Jeffrey Donaldson. " I think
you will find that the outcome puts the issue to bed for many
years to come."
(Editing by Padraic Halpin and Giles Elgood)