* For poll data see
* World stocks to head steadily higher in 2013
* Improving global economy, cbank cash to help shares
* Asian shares, led by China, seen top performers
LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - A tentatively improving global
economy and plentiful central bank cash should foster gains for
the world's major stock markets next year, a Reuters poll of
more than 250 analysts showed.
World stocks have risen this year after a disatrous showing
in 2011, and that trend should continue into the new year, led
by Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Although there have been some signs of late that global
growth is picking up, the poll's respondents pointed to some
sizeable risks to the outlook from big Western economies.
First and foremost, there is the U.S. "fiscal cliff", an
automatic budget tightening at the end of the year, that could
tip the world's biggest economy back into recession if
politicians can't strike a deal to avert it.
There is also Europe's entrenched economic weakness and the
ongoing risk the euro zone's smouldering sovereign debt crisis
will flare up again.
Still, the general feeling was that the next year ought to
be better than this one.
"This time last year, the risks to global growth were to the
downside as the European debt crisis, China hard landing fears
and the U.S. 'fiscal cliff' clouded the economic outlook," said
Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill
Lynch Global Research.
"For 2013, we expect the resolution of fiscal policy issues,
another year of accommodative central bank actions and improving
corporate profits to skew the macro and market risks to the
upside."
The survey was conducted over the past week but before the
U.S. Federal Reserve announced a new round of monetary stimulus
on Wednesday.
Many respondents cited expectations of central bank
liquidity flushing through global financial markets as a reason
to predict gains.
A NEW YEAR FOR CHINA
Asian stocks in particular should lead the way over the next
year, supplanting Russia, which has recently performed best.
The Shanghai Composite, the poorest performer this
year among the poll's 18 indexes, is forecast to perform best,
gaining just over 17 percent by the end of next year from
Wednesday's close.
However, analysts in previous polls have long expected
Chinese stocks to start rocketing soon.
"Economic fundamentals will be better next year, listed
companies from the financial and industrial sectors will see
their growth accelerate, and monetary policy may relax," said
Zheshang Securities analyst Wang Weijun, predicting a "positive
shake-up" for the market next year.
Chinese and Korean stocks have the lowest 12-month forward
price-earnings ratios of around 8.5, further underlining their
favoured status as the top performers for next year.
EURO ZONE STABILISATION
Shanghai will be followed closely by India's BSE Sensex
Japan's Nikkei, each gaining close to 15
percent.
Germany's DAX has enjoyed the best performance so
far in 2012, with a 29 percent gain up to Wednesday's close.
While a repeat of that looks very unlikey next year, major
Western stock markets should do well.
Italy's FT/MIB is seen performing strongly, with a
gain of about 11 percent to end-2013, followed by the
pan-European DJ Euro Stoxx 50 and France's CAC 40
.
"We expect some stabilisation in euro zone activity," said
JP Morgan European equity strategist Emmanuel Cau, adding that
because others were not as optimistic, any improvement could
lead to a sharp rally in European equities.
U.S. stocks should perform well too, with the S&P 500
expected to rise around 8.5 percent by 2013's end, providing
political leaders do avert the automatic fiscal tightening
there, as most analysts expect.
"While not our base case, we believe that stocks could rise
substantially if U.S. policymakers can negotiate a 'grand
bargain' that credibly addresses long-term tax, spending, and
entitlement reforms," said Jonathan Golub, strategist at UBS.
Taiwan's Taiex is expected to bring up the rear,
with a gain of 4 percent between now and end-2013.
TOO CHEERY?
Equity strategists are a notoriously optimistic bunch,
however they underestimated the gains in 11 of the 18 stock
indexes for 2012 in a poll conducted in December last year. That
conclusion is based on index moves so far this year.
Analysts probably tempered their forecasts for 2012 after
they were badly wrong-footed in their call for 2010 and for
2011's disastrous showing for global stocks.
Still, the cheery tone of the latest poll was striking,
especially when next year's economic outlook for many countries
is hardly stellar.
Fewer than 10 percent of all end-2013 stock index forecasts
projected a loss compared with Wednesday's closing levels.
Indeed, there were no negative end-2013 forecasts at all for
stocks in Brazil, South Korea, India, Hong Kong and China.
It was a similar story for many major Western markets. For
instance, only one forecaster out of 18 thought Italy's FT/MIB
would finish next year lower than it is now.
(Additional reporting from Rahul Karunakar and reporters in
London, Paris, New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Hong Kong,
Johannesburg, Frankfurt, Milan, Sao Paulo, Toronto, Seoul,
Moscow and Mumbai; Polling by Reuters Polls Bangalore; Analysis
by Ashrith Doddi and Namrata Anchan; Editing by Ross Finley and
Helen Massy-Beresford)