* Leftist government has 57 pct support
* Centre-right alliance loses voters
* Election due on Sunday, Dec. 9
BUCHAREST, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Romania's leftist government is
likely to win an outright majority in parliament in an election
later on Sunday, an opinion poll showed on Tuesday.
The survey showed 57 percent of Romanians would vote for
Prime Minister Victor Ponta's Social Liberal Union (USL).
Previous polls have put USL support between 48 and around 60
percent.
If the USL fails to win a majority, analysts say
centre-right President Traian Basescu, who appoints the prime
minister, could refuse to nominate his rival Ponta again and may
try to put forward one of his allies to form a coalition,
prolonging uncertainty over the next government.
Such political turmoil could reignite uncertainty over
policymaking and about Romania's negotiations for a new
International Monetary Fund deal authorities plan to seal after
the current 5 billion euro agreement expires.
The USL failed to impeach Basescu earlier this year in a
bitter political battle that raised concerns over the rule of
law in the European Union's second-poorest member state.
The Right Romania Alliance (ARD), a new grouping of
centre-right parties dominated by the opposition Democrat
Liberals - allies of Basescu who are unpopular for past
austerity measures - have 17 percent support, the poll showed.
The previous poll a month ago showed ARD on 24 percent.
The populist party of media tycoon Dan Diaconescu, who
advocates steep tax cuts, is third with 15 percent, according to
the survey pollsters Avangarde and CURS.
The poll, commissioned by the public television broadcaster
TVR, surveyed 4,957 people between Nov. 27-Dec. 2 and had a
margin of error of 1.4 percent.
DATE INSTITUTE USL ARD PPDD UDMR
Dec 2012 Avangarde-CURS 57.0% 17.0% 15.0% 5.0%
Nov 2012 CSOP 48.0% 24.0% 14.0% 6.0%
Oct 2012 IMAS 57.4% 16.0% 14.9% 6.4%
Oct 2012 Public Affairs 52.1% 21.3% 11.7% 6.0%
USL PD-L PPDD UDMR
Sept 2012 IMAS 55.0% 17.8% 15.5% 5.3%
Aug 2012 IMAS 57.1% 17.8% 14.1% 5.8%
Aug 2012 IRES 54.0% 23.0% 10.0% 5.0%
July 2012 CURS 63.0% 19.0% 9.0% 6.0%
June 2012 IMAS 66.6% 12.7% 9.8% 4.3%
Notes:
USL - the ruling alliance of Social Democrats and Liberals
PDL - the opposition Democrat-Liberal party
ARD - new centre-right opposition alliance dominated by PDL
PPDD - Populist People's Party of media tycoon Dan Diaconescu
UDMR - Ethnic Hungarian party, junior ruling coalition member
(Reporting by Ioana Patran; Editing by Pravin Char)