MANILA/KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Philippine
government and Muslim rebels are closing in on a peace deal
after nearly 15 years of violence-interrupted talks, a potential
landmark success for President Benigno Aquino that could pave
the way for more investment in the country's impoverished but
resource-rich south.
Negotiators from both sides told Reuters that the major
obstacles to a framework deal being signed this year appear to
have been surmounted after a period of intense diplomacy.
The deal would formalise a ceasefire in Muslim-majority
areas of Mindanao island and set in train a roadmap to create a
new autonomous region in the mainly Catholic country before the
end of Aquino's term in 2016.
"What we are saying is that the whole thing will be
completed this year," said Marvic Leonen, a law professor who is
the government's chief negotiator, describing the deal as the
"architecture" for the peace process.
The deal to end the 40-year-old conflict, which has killed
more than 120,000 people, could be signed as soon as the next
round of talks in Malaysia, expected to take place in early
October.
Tough negotiations still lie ahead and, analysts say, other
dangers lurk, such as the threat posed by powerful clans who may
disrupt a deal, fearing a loss of political influence.
"We are close to it, but there are still big elephants in
the room, such as territory, internal security, and
wealth-sharing arrangements," the chief negotiator with the Moro
Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels, Mohagher Iqbal, told
Reuters.
PRAGMATISM
The framework deal would signal a major breakthrough in
trust between the government and the MILF separatists, who have
long viewed Manila's motives in the talks with suspicion.
It comes as the Philippines defies its reputation as an
economic laggard with strong growth and a resurgence in investor
interest.
In the latest sign of a policy shift toward Mindanao, the
Aquino government has given the impoverished the state the
biggest regional share of government infrastructure funds.
For the MILF leadership, a peace deal could simply be a
matter of pragmatism.
After four decades of conflict, they are ageing and,
analysts say, eager to see some fruit from the grinding years of
peace negotiations. An outbreak of violence last month when a
small rebel faction opposed to the deal attacked army camps
underlined how the MILF is struggling to control a younger, more
radical generation.
The leadership may also be motivated by the prospect of
royalties from huge untapped deposits of oil, gas and mineral
resources in rebel areas, part of an estimated total of $312
billion in mineral wealth in Mindanao. France's Total
has partnered with Malaysia's Mitra Energy Ltd. to explore oil
and gas fields in the Sulu Sea off Mindanao.
"If the peace agreement will be signed this year, then I
think we will see some benefits already trickling down next
year. That's how fast it is," said Vicente Lao, president of
Mindanao Business Council.
Ishak Mastura, former head of investments for the Autonomous
Region in Muslim Mindanao, said a peace agreement would take
more time to boost investment and trade in the conflict areas.
He said the first phase would likely be an influx of development
aid.
"There's a lot of things to be done before we see these big
companies coming in, such as legal environment, infrastructure,
and security on the ground," Mastura said.
NO PANACEA
Despite the prospect of a peace deal with the MILF, Mindanao
is likely to remain one of the most violent places in Asia,
plagued by a long-running communist insurgency, heavily-armed
clans, and radical Islamic splinter groups.
The framework agreement will set up a 15-member Transition
Commission, which has until 2015 to draft a law creating the new
entity to replace the current autonomous region that has been in
place since 1989 and which is widely seen as a failure.
"It's not a Panacea," said Bryony Lau of the International
Crisis Group in Jakarta. "But it will be really significant
because it is the first substantive text since 2008."
Peace talks with the 11,000-strong MILF started in July
1997, but broke down three years later when then president
Joseph Estrada ordered troops to seize rebel bases after a rebel
attack on a ferry that killed dozens.
His successor Gloria Macapagal Arroyo re-opened talks in
2001, inviting Muslim-majority Malaysia to join. Peace appeared
to be within reach in 2008, but the Supreme Court declared the
deal unconstitutional in a decision that set off rebel attacks
and a fierce military offensive that displaced 750,000 people.
The turning point came in August 2011 when Aquino held
secret talks with MILF leaders at a Tokyo hotel, apparently
convincing them of his sincerity in reaching a deal to end the
conflict.
"The government has been determined all along to reach a
deal that it could implement within Aquino's term, and that
emphasis appears to have resonated with the MILF," said Lau.
(Editing by Jeremy Laurence)