World oil demand is expected to continue to recover in 2013, though at a slower pace as uncertainty over global economic prospects continues, where the demand is expected to increase by 0.81 million bpd in 2013 compared to expected growth of 0.85 million bpd in 2012, says a new report.
It also said that output from the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) including Iraq, meanwhile, increased in August 2012 after a decline in the previous month.
The MoM increase of around 254,000 bpd in August was largely accounted for by Angola which increased its production by 193,000 bpd.
This is a result of Angola’s investment in oil exploration and production, according to the report released by the Kuwait-based Global Investment House (Global).
It pointed out that sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) states became effective on Iran from July 2012. Iran’s production was 2.77 million bpd in August 2012 compared to 2.78 million bpd, 2.96 million bpd and 3.14 million bpd in July, June and May respectively, it said.
Iran’s production has come down by around 0.8 million bpd since the start of the year. However, the impact has been muted as decline in Iran’s production has been more than offset by increase in production from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Libya.
The report said Libya’s production continued to increase, though at a slower pace, as the country’s production reaches close to pre-revolution levels. Libyan oil production increased by around 23,000 bpd to 1.44 million bpd in August 2012.
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 0.94 million bpd in 2013, which is a slight upward revision from last month’s estimates, according to OPEC.
The total supply estimate has, however, been revised slightly downwards to 54.09 million bpd from 54.1 million bpd.
Assuming that OPEC countries produce at their target rate of 30.0 million bpd in 2013, the contribution of non-OPEC supplies will be 64.3 percent to the world oil supply, the report said.
The surge in non-OPEC supply is expected to be driven by growth in North America and in particular the US. The other major increase in production is expected to come from Latin America, Africa and FSU. All of these regions are expected to witness an increase in supply by around 0.14 million bpd, according to the report.
Western Europe oil demand is expected to decline by 0.24 million bpd in 2013 after an expected decline of 0.39 million bpd in 2012, which is not surprising as the Euro-zone economy continues suffer from the repercussions of the ongoing debt crisis.
China, meanwhile, is expected to remain the major oil demand growth driver with an expected increase of 0.35 million bpd in 2013.
The rest of the oil demand increase is expected to come from the developing countries, the report said.